As President of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage’s Los Angeles Company and Executive Vice President of NRT’s Southwest Region, I am often asked for my outlook on the real estate market. Of course, I don’t have a crystal ball and cannot predict the future. But I do have more than 30 years of experience, plus scores of monthly sales reports, trend recaps and opportunities to attend seminars and events led by today’s top economic experts—which all give me a strong indication of where the Southern California market is headed. I recently attended once such seminar—UCLA Anderson Forecast’s March 2012 Economic Outlook. Attended by some of California’s top visionaries and leaders, the UCLA Anderson Forecast is one of the most widely watched and often-cited economic outlooks for the state and nation.

The Forecast presented a cautiously optimistic national economic outlook, citing an improving national employment situation, with more than half a million jobs created in the first two months of the year. The Forecast also projected a modest 2 percent growth in gross domestic product (GDP) through the rest of the year.  In California, UCLA economists said that we will likely see slow, yet steady gains in employment through 2012, following a slow trajectory towards single-digit unemployment by the end of 2013 and 2014.  Payrolls will also grow over the next two years, as will real personal income growth.

In addition to the statements from the Forecast, Coldwell Banker is experiencing tremendous activity at all price ranges. This, coupled with the recent media reports on real estate sales, leads me to believe that we may be witnessing what is commonly called “a market in shift.” Inventory is at a five-year-low in most markets. So, supply and demand is playing a role in the market. We are also witnessing a stabilization of prices and an increase of prices in certain markets. California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young recently said it best: “Recent encouraging signs in the GDP, employment picture and consumer confidence suggest that a growing economy is in the making. All this, combined with continued low mortgage rates, lays out a good foundation for the housing market to continue to grow as we enter the spring home buying season.”

If you are anything like me and you require good hard data to convince you of an investment’s merits, why not let the UCLA Anderson Forecast be your first call to action this spring? The weather is warming up, interest rates are still historically low and many great value opportunities can be found throughout Southern California. It just might be the best time to buy a home yet.

For the last 105 years, Coldwell Banker has led the real estate industry with a fierce commitment to honesty, integrity and ethics. Today, Coldwell Banker’s commitment to these values have not only manifested in a record number of sales, but have resulted in Realogy, Coldwell Banker’s parent company, being recognized among the 2012 World’s Most Ethical Companies by The Ethisphere® Institute, the leading international business ethics think-tank.

Recently announced on March 16, this honor means a lot to us at Coldwell Banker, but it should mean a lot to our clients too.  When faced with one of the most important financial decisions of their lifetime, homebuyers and sellers need to know that their real estate agent is not only looking out for their best interests, but that their brokerage firm holds them accountable and maintains upright business practices. After more than 32 years in the real estate business, I can tell you that Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Greater Los Angeles has truly raised the bar for ethical standards within the industry. We have made a tradition out of hiring only the most professional, talented ethical real estate agents in the business. Our executive leadership, which offers an unprecedented amount of real estate experience, also help mentor and support our local branch leadership from the top, down. Our broad-based training seminars (recently ranked no. 9 on Training magazine’s annual Training Top 125 list) focus on educating our sales associates with the most up-to-date, technological and ethical practices in the business. We also give back to our local communities on a regular basis throughout the Los Angeles, Ventura and Santa Barbara areas through our Coldwell Banker Community Foundation. These examples show our commitment to being an ethical company that is focused on making a positive impact in our clients’ and neighbors’ lives.

When it comes to choosing a real estate agent, sellers and buyers frequently hold trustworthiness and reputation as the most important factors in their decision. Coldwell Banker holds these qualities just as highly as our clients do. It’s a promise our company’s founders made more than a century ago, and it’s one we intend to keep today.

For the last few weeks, I handed over my View column to several of my talented colleagues to give you a different perspective on the real estate market. A lot has happened since I’ve been gone! For starters, have you noticed our new View format? It’s just one example of Coldwell Banker’s ability to change you with you by providing more meaningful real estate content, new voices and fresh ways of presenting the extraordinary homes for sale in Southern California.

While my hiatus opened the door to our new View unveiling, it also provided me with an opportunity to attend Coldwell Banker’s annual Generation Blue Experience in New Orleans. Welcoming thousands of Coldwell Banker professionals, technology experts and industry insiders from all over the world, Gen Blue represents the pillars of our brand: leadership and innovation. With that in mind, I’d like to share the most important highlights and where you will find Coldwell Banker in 2012.

1.    Finding a Home’s True Value
This year, Coldwell Banker is focusing beyond the financial reasons why people invest in homes. It isn’t always for the tax deduction or capital gains. They also have emotional reasons, such as starting a family, wanting a place of their own or seeking a community to put down roots. That’s why a home’s true value cannot be found with an algorithm involving square footage or physical amenities; it’s found in a living, breathing equation that calculates life’s memories and moments in a home. You can see this idea come through in our national TV campaign spots, which debuted last week and are now viewable at blog.coldwellbanker.com/tv.

2.      Searching Out New Paths Online
You have heard us talk a lot about online search at Coldwell Banker, and here’s why: 87% of all real estate buyers start their search online. This year, we are continuing to respond to the unprecedented demand for online information by showing consumers that the search process doesn’t have to be so clinical. It can go beyond just beds/baths/square feet. Technologies on coldwellbanker.com, such as our lifestyle search, keyword search and BlueScape search, are the newest ways consumers can explore the home market
by including factors beyond the details of property.

3.      Staying Ahead of the Mobile Revolution
More consumers are searching for real estate on their mobile devices than ever before. Coldwell Banker has updated its mobile Web sites with enhanced functionality to also complement its mobile app suite, which is available on the iPhone, iPad and Android. When was the last time you worked with a real estate firm that invested so many resources in the technology of today in order to deliver the information you need on the device you want?

4.      Embracing More Video Than Any Other Real Estate Brand
Over 3 billion videos are viewed on YouTube each day and consumers are relying on video in record numbers as a way to experience a community, locate an agent or find a home. With over 2 million video views to date, the Coldwell Banker On Location YouTube channel is the most visited national real estate brand channel on YouTube and our videos of listings, agents and communities are incorporated across our platform, including coldwellbanker.com, mobile sites and our iPad app.

I wanted to share these Gen Blue highlights to remind you of Coldwell Banker’s strongest core values: leadership and innovation. They are at the heart of everything we do.

The key words for 2012 are ‘historic low’—low interest rates, low prices and low inventory. With the stars aligning for buyers this year, those who are on the fence should take advantage of today’s opportunistic real estate market. Yet they should also enter the market with the right knowledge. As a sales associate and broker with over 22 years of experience, and now part of local leadership for the nation’s largest real estate company overseeing 15 offices in the Northwest region, I have a unique perspective on both past and present real estate cycles. So, what are the most important things today’s buyers should know?

1. Get Proper Preapproval.
I recommend getting pre-approved, not just pre-qualified, with a reputable lender. Pre-approval means you have provided necessary documents, including recent income/asset statements and credit rating to the lender/broker. Not only will you feel more confident when making an offer, but the seller will take it more seriously. I also recommend a mortgage banker with the flexibility to change and shop your loan to many lenders, as opposed to just going through one direct lender. For example, First Capital is a mortgage banker with many banks in-house like Wells Fargo, Chase, GMAC, PHH and more, ensuring that your loan is placed with the best interest rate and lender, plus representatives are located conveniently in our Coldwell Banker branches. After all, it is not only about qualifying for a loan; it is also about your ability to close on it.

2. Choose the Inspectors Carefully and Investigate Fully.
Buying a home is one of the most important decisions you will make during your lifetime, so it is vital that you safeguard your investment by investigating your purchase completely. No home is perfect under the microscope of a good inspector, but the ultimate goal is to ensure that you are a well-informed buyer. Therefore, in your inspector selection process, I recommend working from referrals from your trusted advisors, friends or family who have recently purchased a home. You may also want to gather at least three inspectors from your real estate agent. Coldwell Banker has many listed on our Web site for your convenience at www.conceirgeservice.com. Don’t be afraid to ask them hard questions during the interview process and check their references, credentials, consumer/business bureaus and online feedback sites. In addition, pay close attention to the Seller’s Transfer Disclosure Statement, city and media records, as well as informative local neighbors.

3. Find the Right Realtor Representation.
As a buyer, it’s best to start representation with a REALTOR®. As a member of the National Association of REALTORS®, he or she must subscribe to the REALTOR® Code of Ethics, which are consumer-centric and focused. You are also more often best served by an agent who is full-time, local and experienced, with the resources and support systems to fulfill your requirements. Buyers should get an agent recommendation from someone they know and trust, as well as search the candidates online, looking at their Web sites, Facebook Business Page and popular recommendation sites. In my experience, brokers from small/boutique firms don’t really cater to the consumer needs of today, as typically demonstrated by a lack of client tools, training programs, online resources and international reach. Agents with large national brand brokers, such as Coldwell Banker, are here for the client’s best interest. We truly give buyers the maximum power and resources needed to buy smart and with confidence in today’s market.

Whether you are currently on the fence or believe you cannot afford a home right now, today’s market is the perfect storm for buyers. In fact, it has all of the signs of a “rear view mirror market,” in which you may look back and say, “I should have bought then, if only someone had told me.” At Coldwell Banker, we are here to tell you: you have a lot of opportunity knocking at your door this year. The question is whether you choose to open it.

Anyone who knows me knows that I have remained unabashedly optimistic about the resilience of the luxury market in Greater Los Angeles over the last few years. For those of you who think I’m only painting a positive picture because I bear the Coldwell Banker Previews name on my business card, I can honestly say that my viewpoint is based on the facts and the sales reports I see come across my desk on nearly a daily basis. Today, my position remains unchanged.

The upper end of the market continues to boom on the Westside of Los Angeles, with 29 pending sales of properties priced $5 million and above, seven sales of properties priced $10 million and above and two properties in excess of $20 million. To date, 13 properties have closed escrow at a price in excess of $5 million, compared to only ten at the same time last year. When I look at Coldwell Banker Previews’ closed escrows of properties over $2 million, we have also seen a 17.8% increase in January 2012 sales volume, compared to the same time last year.

Clearly, the affluent buyer is seeing value in the investment of Los Angeles real estate today. Interest rates remain extremely attractive; prices have adjusted over the high sales figures of 2007; and many still regard real estate as a more preferable investment to the stock market. After all, who doesn’t want to own a gorgeous home in Southern California, where we are currently enjoying one of our warmest, most pleasant winters on record?

“Westside residential real estate provides them with a fabulous lifestyle while continuing to be the best possible long-term investment,” said Joyce Rey, a Beverly Hills luxury home specialist
and Executive Director of Coldwell Banker Previews International. “We have the best weather, incredible cultural opportunities here, and fabulous estates that give them privacy and elegance. We are very optimistic about the future of the 2012 high-end estate marketplace.”

When I look at what is happening abroad, there is also some exciting movement in the upper echelons. Coldwell Banker Previews’ international presence is growing and responding to the influx of Asian buyers entering the Southern California luxury space, with 95 offices already in China alone. (Globally, Coldwell Banker Previews has nearly 87,000 sales professionals in 3,200 offices in 49 countries around the world.) From Eastern to Western shores, our strong global presence has not only solidified our standing in the luxury real estate world, but shows the extensive investment we have made in reaching high net worth buyers all over the world. Call me optimistic, but I believe luxury buyers and sellers have much to look forward to in 2012. When they are ready to enter the market, our knowledgeable and well-networked Previews agents are here, ready to assist them with their next dream home.

Selling a home can be one of the most stressful experiences in life, but it can also one of the most rewarding—as long you have a skilled real estate team behind you. In today’s complex market, it has never been more important to choose a real estate agent and company that you completely trust. Over the course of my 30-year career, I have personally overseen thousands of transactions, and with that, I’ve also watched some sellers make costly missteps. 
 
What should every seller know before they select their real estate agent? 



1.  The company matters.
Contrary to what agents from boutique firms might tell you, the name on their business card matters. In challenging markets, both sellers and buyers tend to gravitate towards the brands they know and trust. Boutique companies might have name recognition in their local market, but their name most likely means little to potential buyers outside the area. The Coldwell Banker name, however, is instantly recognized. With over 87,000 agents in 49 countries and territories we are a real estate company familiar to buyers all over the world.


 
2. Support systems are critical. 
 
When interviewing listing agents, sellers may not think it’s important to look at the agent’s support system. However, with the rapid pace of technology and the changes I’ve seen in the real estate profession, I can tell you that it makes more of a difference today than it ever has. Coldwell Banker agents have many levels of support, including mentoring, continuing education and training events to ensure that our agents are kept the most up-to-date about changes and adjustments in real estate rules and regulations and the ethics of this industry. Our exemplary management team is also working behind the scenes to give agents guidance on pricing or help in avoiding problems that may arise during a transaction. And finally, our clients and agents also benefit from having the proprietary LeadRouter technology, which routes Web site leads directly to the listing agent for rapid response.


3.  Pay close attention to marketing.
 
Marketing can have a big impact on a successful and timely sale of your home, and no other company in Southern California knows that better than Coldwell Banker. That is why we launched the View, Southern California’s largest comprehensive real estate resource.  Because of View, Coldwell Banker can now put your property in front of more buyers on a local, national and global level. Nationally, we have significant advertising partnerships, both in print and online, with powerhouses like Zillow, Trulia, Realtor.com, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times and Robb Report. Additionally, our proprietary Web sites had the highest number of unique visitors among all national real estate franchise brands for 2011—28 percent higher than the closest competitor, according to Neilson. At a time when 87% of all real estate  buyers start their search online, that percentage could mean the difference between selling and not selling. 

 
4.  Get the price right. 


We are in what I would like to call “an emerging market.”  We are emerging from the darkness into the light.  Now is not the time to be ambitious with a list price—it doesn’t matter what price point you are in! If you are in the luxury market or selling your fist-time home, pricing is still the best marketing tool you have as a seller today.  Get it wrong and your property will languish; get it right and your property will sell for the highest possible price, in the shortest amount of time. 


No doubt, today’s home sellers have a wealth of options when it comes to choosing a real estate professional to sell their property. After three decades in this business, I can honestly tell you that there are many qualified, ethical real estate agents out there who would represent you just as well as any of our own. But there is only one Coldwell Banker—and that is the competitive edge you gain when you list your home with us.

The New Year always brings the ubiquitous housing forecasts and predictions. While some outlooks are gloomy, other outlooks sing a brighter tune, buoyed by the theme of stabilization. As part of the nation’s largest real estate company, Coldwell Banker has always made its mission to give our clients the information they need to make the right decisions. To kick off 2012, we reviewed the trends, researched the economic indicators, scoured the headlines and asked our company’s top executives and Southern California economists to give their insight on the opportunities ahead for potential buyers and sellers in the New Year.

Jim Gillespie, CEO Coldwell Banker Real Estate, says low mortgage interest rates, home selection, reduced prices coupled with overall price stabilization and the tax advantages of home ownership will help make 2012 “the smartest time to buy” for those who have the financial wherewithal and lifestyle need.

“The critical word is ‘lifestyle’ as buyers continue to purchase because of life events—marriages, kids, need for space, job transfers,” Jim told me. “The decision to buy is still deeply personal and I’m the first to say homeownership is not for everyone.”

Jim also noted that a 2012 housing rebound will likely follow strength in the job market, which will dramatically improve consumer confidence.

“Over the last few years, the economy has forced many people to move back in with mom and dad, while extended families are living under one roof,” he said. “According to the U.S. Census, for example, household creation had dropped from about a million annually to approximately 400,000 in 2010. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that we are beginning to see the household creation numbers increase as we are seeing unemployment rates drop and confidence rise. Hopefully soon we will have pent up demand set housing up for steady, long-term growth.”

For Southern California buyers gearing up to make a home purchase in 2012, it’s also important to look at the local economic landscape. I checked in with Stuart Gabriel, Director of the Ziman Center for Real Estate at UCLA and Arden Realty Chair and Professor of Finance at the UCLA Anderson School of Management. He said expects modest economic growth of 2 to 3% in 2012, with several positive and negative factors at play in Southern California, including increased job creation, increased consumer spending, favorable interest rates, stabilized home prices and a significant jump in auto sales coupled with two potential “curveballs in the forecast”: the Euro economic crisis and a wave of foreclosures expected to hit the market this year.

“The broad consensus is that we are at or near the trough in terms of pricing, depending on your area,” he said. “In areas where there were high foreclosures, you may see a slight drop in prices. On the coast, however, we anticipate price stability with the likelihood of price increases in the coming years. From a historical standpoint, prices and interest rates make 2012 a good time to buy for those who anticipate some length of stay in the home and want to enjoy the services of the home.”

At Coldwell Banker, we encourage all buyers and sellers to look at the macro and micro factors that could potentially impact their financial investment. The decision of whether or not to buy or sell in 2012 is a personal one, but it is one that should be made with great consideration and respect of the facts. When or if you decide this year is the right time to enter the real estate market, I can assure you that Coldwell Banker’s doors will be wide open. We will be here to guide you every step of the way.

“One of the reasons why I wanted to join Coldwell Banker is the incredible structure of their offices,” said John Capellaro, a sales associate in Manhattan Beach. “We have impeccable marketing support and an experienced branch manager who is physically on-hand to help us through our transactions at every turn. That kind of agent support is so rare in this industry.”

Other agents say Coldwell Banker’s mentoring and professional training programs are invaluable. One such program is Success Builder, a course designed to enhance our agents’ skills and help take their business to a new level. 

“Coldwell Banker is always wanting to keep us abreast of the latest sales techniques, market trends and social media resources—which ultimately helps me serve my clients better,” said Kiki Freeman, a sales associate in the Sunset Strip office. “It’s like having someone there to walk you through everything. When you join Coldwell Banker, you have an entire company working for you.”

Agents also consistently say they are blown away by the depth of resources at their disposal at Coldwell Banker. When it comes to marketing, they have the View (Southern California’s largest comprehensive weekly real estate magazine), as well as access to direct mail marketing, multi-media marketing tools and brand partnerships such as 1st Dibs and Maserati. Agents have access to our proprietary buyer-inquiry rapid response Lead Router, plus concierge services and in-house legal, escrow, mortgage and relocation divisions. Our company has also embraced technology on a level that has not been seen before in the real estate industry. Our YouTube channel, On Location, is an example.

“You never know where your buyer is going to come from,” said Kiki. “Coldwell Banker’s ‘On Location’ channel really makes my properties come alive, especially for out-of-the-area buyers. With video, they can see the uniqueness of the interiors and important details that they couldn’t see from still shots.”

Ultimately, our agents and clients want to work with a brand they know and trust—especially during challenging real estate cycles. Just seeing the Coldwell Banker logo on a business card means instant credibility and professionalism. As Kiki said, “Coldwell Banker is a household name.”

John added: “I get the benefit of being with a company whose reputation is such that I get calls from people, asking me ‘Are you the Coldwell Banker Manhattan Beach guy?’ When people see the brand consistently, it makes them feel more comfortable about trusting us with such an important investment.”

As we look ahead to 2012, it’s an opportune time to reflect on why so many talented real estate agents were proud to say, “I am Coldwell Banker” in 2011. Coldwell Banker’s brand reputation, combined with our ability to support our agents every step of the way, should give our clients great confidence this year. They know their future rests in good hands.

Because Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage has made a tradition out of placing people in homes, we feel a great sense of responsibility to help those in need during the holidays. Each year, our Community Foundation of Greater Los Angeles embarks on a December Giving Campaign, where our branch offices in Los Angeles, Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties collect donations from our sales associates, staff and affiliates. Many of our sales associates will also be volunteering at these organizations during the holidays.

“The Coldwell Banker Community Foundation is proud to support local homeless charities in the Los Angeles area,” said Lori Ramirez, branch manager of the Los Feliz office and current chair of the Coldwell Banker Community Foundation.  “Some of these charities include Passageways, St Joseph’s Center for the Homeless, My Friend’s Place and Harbor Interfaith.  At this time of year, there are so many folks in need of our support and assistance.  Everyone is entitled to a warm, safe home, and our goal is to support people in need.”

Many charities are currently in need of monetary donations and donated goods during the holidays. At Passageways, an intake center serving Pasadena’s homeless services network, they need basic items such as socks, underwear, toiletries and motel vouchers. A fund for bus tokens is also needed to link people to resources in the community. The Giving Spirit, a Los Angeles-based non-profit, is still $150,000 short of the funds needed to build the survival kits that will reach approximately 2,750 homeless men, women and children in need throughout greater Los Angeles this winter.

“The winter is the time of year our homeless friends in L.A. need the help of organizations like The Giving Spirit the most,” said Jim Underwood, development chair for The Giving Spirit. “We are always in need of items like clothing, blankets and food, but we are desperately trying to close the gap to achieve our $220,000 fundraising goal this year.”

I know these stories are not isolated cases. Many other homeless charities throughout Southern California need our help this holiday season. I invite our View readers to join us in bringing a little joy to the homeless men, women and children in our communities. To find out how you can help, we have listed several charities in need below. From the Coldwell Banker family to yours…happy holidays.

LOS ANGELES METRO AREA

Harbor Interfaith
670 West 9th Street

San Pedro, CA. 90731
(310) 831-0603
www.harborinterfaith.org
To donate online, click here.

My Friend’s Place
Membership Program
P.O. Box 3867
Hollywood, CA 90078
(323) 908-0011
myfriendsplace.org
To donate online, click here.

Passageways
Union Station Homeless Services
825 E. Orange Grove Boulevard
Pasadena, CA 91104
(626) 240-4557
www.unionstationhs.org
To donate online, click here.

St. Joseph’s Center for the Homeless
204 Hampton Drive
Venice, California 90291-8633
(310) 396-6468
www.stjosephctr.org/homeless_center.html
To donate online, click here.

The Giving Spirit
11908 Montana Avenue, #205
Los Angeles, CA. 90049
(310) 442-9489
www.thegivingspirit.org
To donate online, click here.

VENTURA COUNTY

Our Place Shelter (Turning Point Foundation)
538 E. Thompson Blvd.
Ventura, CA
(805) 652-2151
To donate online, click here.

Ventura County Rescue Mission (The Rescue Mission Alliance)
234 E. 6th Street
Oxnard, CA
(805) 487-1234
www.vcrescuemission.org
To donate online, click here.

Lighthouse Womens & Childrens Mission (The Rescue Mission Alliance)
104 N. Hayes
Oxnard, CA
(805) 385-7200
To donate online, click here.

SANTA BARBARA COUNTY

Casa Esperanza
P.O. Box 24116
Santa Barbara, CA 93121
(805) 884-8481
www.casa-esperanza.org/
To donate online, click here.

Transition House
425 E. Cota Street
Santa Barbara, CA 93101
(805) 966-9668
transitionhouse.com
To make a donation online, click here.

The Rescue Mission
525 East Yanonali Street
Santa Barbara, CA 93103
(805) 966-1316
www.sbrm.org
To donate online, click here.

Historically, Southern California has always been a more expensive place to live compared to other parts of the country…so you might be tempted to believe homes under $204,000 are few and far between. But I recently checked camoves.com, and believe it or not, there are at least 1,437 properties that are priced at or below $200,000 throughout the Los Angeles, Ventura and Santa Barbara County areas. Could home ownership be more in reach than you think? If you are renting and have financial stability, why not explore the possibility of home ownership? Talk it through with a family member or friend.  Don’t be afraid to talk to a real estate agent, spend a few minutes with the manager of a real estate office or visit Coldwell Banker’s online First Time Home Buyer Resource Center.

Now I know what you might be thinking.  Of course a Coldwell Banker executive would push homeownership!  You’re right. I’ve been in the real estate business since I was 19, and my wife and I have owned many homes over the last three decades. But I also know what I’m talking about! To this day, I believe in the power of home ownership as part of the American Dream, but more importantly, I believe it in it as a viable long-term investment. I am not alone. According to the 2011 National Housing Pulse Survey by the National Association of REALTORS, 72 percent of renters today aspire to home ownership said owning a home is a top priority for their future, up from 63 percent in 2010.

Now I realize homeownership isn’t for everyone.  There are many factors that come into play in the decision to buy—your lifestyle, job status, savings, credit history, etc. But with home affordability levels at their record best in Southern California, I strongly suggest you take a good, hard look at homeownership. (In fact, the California Association of REALTORS just released their Traditional Housing Affordability Index, and the percentage of home buyers who could afford to purchase a median-priced, existing single-family home in California rose to 52 percent in the third quarter of 2011!) Right now just might be the perfect time, as UCLA economists recently forecasted that California home prices will rise steadily over the next six years. If you are paying more than $1,000 a month in rent and have financial stability, choosing to buy a home today could be the smartest investment you ever make.